StatleticsNFL

Week 1 · Statletics NFL

Every angle of the NFL. In one place.

Live scores, betting edges, league intel, ML predictions, and advanced metrics

Elo ratingsEPA & success rateML predictionsLive odds
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Week 1 · 2026 season

Betting edges →
NE
NE@SEA

Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM

NE 29%71% SEA
Win prob
SEA 71%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+130
Spread
SEA -7.4
Proj score
17-25

Full H2H breakdown →

SF
SF@LAR

Thu, Sep 10, 8:35 PM

SF 34%66% LAR
Win prob
LAR 66%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+85
Spread
LAR -5.6
Proj score
22-28

Full H2H breakdown →

ARI
ARI@LAC

Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM

ARI 22%78% LAC
Win prob
LAC 78%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+210
Spread
LAC -10.6
Proj score
15-26

Full H2H breakdown →

ATL
ATL@PIT

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM

ATL 35%65% PIT
Win prob
PIT 65%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+78
Spread
PIT -5.3
Proj score
17-23

Full H2H breakdown →

BAL
BAL@IND

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM

BAL 60%40% IND
Win prob
BAL 60%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-144
Spread
BAL -3.5
Proj score
27-23

Full H2H breakdown →

BUF
BUF@HOU

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM

BUF 47%54% HOU
Win prob
HOU 54%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-26
Spread
HOU -1.2
Proj score
20-21

Full H2H breakdown →

CHI
CHI@CAR

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM

CHI 62%38% CAR
Win prob
CHI 62%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-160
Spread
CHI -4.2
Proj score
23-19

Full H2H breakdown →

CLE
CLE@JAX

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM

CLE 21%79% JAX
Win prob
JAX 79%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+217
Spread
JAX -10.9
Proj score
13-24

Full H2H breakdown →

DAL
DAL@NYG

Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM

DAL 52%48% NYG
Win prob
DAL 52%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-69
Spread
DAL -0.6
Proj score
28-28

Full H2H breakdown →

GB
GB@MIN

Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM

GB 40%60% MIN
Win prob
MIN 60%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+27
Spread
MIN -3.3
Proj score
15-19

Full H2H breakdown →

MIA
MIA@LV

Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM

MIA 63%37% LV
Win prob
MIA 63%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-171
Spread
MIA -4.6
Proj score
21-16

Full H2H breakdown →

NO
NO@DET

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM

NO 21%79% DET
Win prob
DET 79%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+212
Spread
DET -10.7
Proj score
17-28

Full H2H breakdown →

NYJ
NYJ@TEN

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM

NYJ 46%54% TEN
Win prob
TEN 54%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-24
Spread
TEN -1.2
Proj score
21-22

Full H2H breakdown →

TB
TB@CIN

Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM

TB 45%55% CIN
Win prob
CIN 55%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-11
Spread
CIN -1.8
Proj score
24-26

Full H2H breakdown →

WAS
WAS@PHI

Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM

WAS 23%77% PHI
Win prob
PHI 77%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+197
Spread
PHI -10.1
Proj score
15-25

Full H2H breakdown →

DEN
DEN@KC

Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM

DEN 61%39% KC
Win prob
DEN 61%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-146
Spread
DEN -3.6
Proj score
18-15

Full H2H breakdown →

Featured matchupWeek 1 · 2026-09-13
Full breakdown →
BUF
BUF
Elo 1678
vs
47%/54%
win probability
HOU
HOU
Elo 1652
BUF 47%54% HOU
Spread
HOU -1.2
Total
41.1
Predicted score
20-21
Game script
Toss-up

League pulse

SEA
Top of the league
Elo 1753
A+
SEA
Super Bowl favorite
47%
12.8W proj
SEA
Closest to a lock
97% PO
12.8W
DET
NFC North race
+0.7W
over MIN
SF
Live sleeper
4.7% SB
dark horse

Today's storylines

Power rankings

via Elo
  1. 1SEASEA
    A+
  2. 2BUFBUF
    A+
  3. 3LARLAR
    A+
  4. 4DENDEN
    A+
  5. 5HOUHOU
    A
  6. 6PHIPHI
    A
  7. 7NENE
    A
  8. 8DETDET
    A-
  9. 9BALBAL
    A-
  10. 10JAXJAX
    A-
  11. 11SFSF
    A-
  12. 12MINMIN
    A-

Projected standings

10,000 Monte Carlo sims

AFC East

  • 1BUFBUF
    11.2W86% PO
  • 2NENE
    10.2W72% PO
  • 3MIAMIA
    6.8W12% PO
  • 4NYJNYJ
    4.5W1% PO

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

  • 1DENDEN
    11.3W87% PO
  • 2LACLAC
    8.7W41% PO
  • 3KCKC
    8.6W39% PO
  • 4LVLV
    4.1W1% PO

NFC East

NFC North

  • 1DETDET
    10.8W77% PO
  • 2MINMIN
    10.1W65% PO
  • 3GBGB
    9.1W46% PO
  • 4CHICHI
    8.4W33% PO

NFC South

  • 1TBTB
    8.5W48% PO
  • 2ATLATL
    7.7W34% PO
  • 3NONO
    7.3W26% PO
  • 4CARCAR
    5.8W9% PO

NFC West

  • 1SEASEA
    12.8W97% PO
  • 2LARLAR
    11.0W81% PO
  • 3SFSF
    9.7W58% PO
  • 4ARIARI
    5.0W1% PO

Award races

Computing composite scores…

League-wide value bets

Comparing our model to market lines…

Fantasy: trending adds

  1. Cyrus AllenWR · KC+12,036
  2. Jeff CaldwellWR · KC+8,757
  3. Zavion ThomasWR · CHI+7,380
  4. Seth McGowanRB · IND+5,904
  5. Caleb DouglasWR · MIA+5,064
  6. Tyquan ThorntonWR · KC+4,984

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