Week 2
Every angle of the NFL. In one place.
Live scores, betting edges, league intel, ML predictions, and advanced metrics
odds: ok (1h)predictions: ok (8h)news: ok (4m)scores: stale (4d)players: ok (19h)
Week 1 · 2026 season
Full week slate →
NE@SEA
Wed, Sep 9, 8:20 PM
Final 10 – 13
Win prob
SEA 65%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+130
Spread
SEA -5.2
Proj score
17-23
Full H2H breakdown →
SF@LAR
Thu, Sep 10, 8:35 PM
Final 27 – 7
Win prob
LAR 68%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+85
Spread
LAR -6.9
Proj score
22-29
Full H2H breakdown →
ARI@LAC
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM
Final 26 – 14
Win prob
LAC 72%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+210
Spread
LAC -8.0
Proj score
16-24
Full H2H breakdown →
ATL@PIT
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
Final 13 – 20
Win prob
PIT 63%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+78
Spread
PIT -4.3
Proj score
17-22
Full H2H breakdown →
BAL@IND
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
Final 41 – 23
Win prob
IND 52%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-144
Spread
IND -0.6
Proj score
22-23
Full H2H breakdown →
BUF@HOU
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
Final 36 – 31
Win prob
HOU 54%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-26
Spread
HOU -1.1
Proj score
19-20
Full H2H breakdown →
CHI@CAR
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
Final 59 – 37
Win prob
CHI 57%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-160
Spread
CHI -2.2
Proj score
22-20
Full H2H breakdown →
CLE@JAX
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
Final 10 – 34
Win prob
JAX 81%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+217
Spread
JAX -10.6
Proj score
9-19
Full H2H breakdown →
DAL@NYG
Sun, Sep 13, 8:20 PM
Final 20 – 28
Win prob
NYG 52%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-69
Spread
NYG -0.8
Proj score
25-25
Full H2H breakdown →
GB@MIN
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM
Final 22 – 39
Win prob
MIN 52%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+27
Spread
MIN -0.7
Proj score
19-19
Full H2H breakdown →
MIA@LV
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM
Final 13 – 27
Win prob
MIA 58%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-171
Spread
MIA -2.4
Proj score
20-17
Full H2H breakdown →
NO@DET
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
Final 30 – 31
Win prob
DET 74%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+212
Spread
DET -8.3
Proj score
14-22
Full H2H breakdown →
NYJ@TEN
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
Final 23 – 10
Win prob
TEN 59%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-24
Spread
TEN -2.8
Proj score
17-20
Full H2H breakdown →
TB@CIN
Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM
Final 27 – 33
Win prob
CIN 52%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-11
Spread
CIN -0.5
Proj score
22-22
Full H2H breakdown →
WAS@PHI
Sun, Sep 13, 4:25 PM
Final 22 – 24
Win prob
PHI 74%
Elo Δ (home − away)
+197
Spread
PHI -9.0
Proj score
16-25
Full H2H breakdown →
DEN@KC
Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM
Final 10 – 31
Win prob
DEN 55%
Elo Δ (home − away)
-146
Spread
DEN -1.7
Proj score
20-18
Full H2H breakdown →
Featured matchupWeek 2 · 2026-09-20
Full breakdown →JAX 42%58% DEN
Spread
DEN -3.1
Total
43.2
Predicted score
20-23
Game script
Defensive grind
First insight: market setup
CAR @ ATL profiles as a true toss-up.
Model spread: -1.9 · total 43.1
Open quick matchup read →League pulse
Week 2 slate
Full board →2026-09-17
Pick: BUF -3.3blendO/U 51.1
Mkt: BUF -3.0 · O/U 52.0 · 6 books + KalshiEdge: BUF +1.8
80% CI 18-95%low confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
adjusted epa v2- Elo + home-field gap+4.77 BUF
- Pace + pass-rate environment (total)-1.46 DET
- Opponent-adjusted efficiency edge (EPA/play)+0.49 BUF
Model aloneBUF 63% · -4.8
Market (6 bk+K)BUF 73% · -3.0
Blend weight85% market
low confidence · cal 50%
2026-09-20
Pick: ATL -1.9blendO/U 43.1
Mkt: ATL -1.5 · O/U 44.0 · 5 books + KalshiEdge: ATL +2.6
80% CI 16-94%low confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
adjusted epa v2- Elo + home-field gap+4.47 ATL
- Pace + pass-rate environment (total)-1.49 CAR
- Adjusted defensive edge+0.45 ATL
Model aloneATL 62% · -4.1
Market (5 bk+K)ATL 50% · -1.5
Blend weight85% market
low confidence · cal 50%
2026-09-20
Pick: BAL -7.3blendO/U 45.0
Mkt: BAL -7.5 · O/U 46.5 · 5 books + KalshiEdge: NO +1.3
80% CI 21-96%low confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
adjusted epa v2- Elo + home-field gap+9.00 BAL
- Pace + pass-rate environment (total)-1.57 NO
- Adjusted defensive edge-1.00 NO
Model aloneBAL 68% · -6.2
Market (5 bk+K)BAL 77% · -7.5
Blend weight85% market
low confidence · cal 50%
2026-09-20
Pick: CHI -3.2blendO/U 43.9
Mkt: CHI -3.5 · O/U 45.5 · 5 books + Kalshi · line → MINEdge: MIN +2.0
80% CI 12-92%low confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
adjusted epa v2- Adjusted defensive edge-1.48 MIN
- Pace + pass-rate environment (total)-1.33 MIN
- Opponent-adjusted efficiency edge (EPA/play)+0.23 CHI
Model aloneCHI 55% · -1.5
Market (5 bk+K)CHI 61% · -3.5
Blend weight85% market
low confidence · cal 50%
2026-09-20
Pick: HOU -4.0blendO/U 45.2
Mkt: HOU -3.0 · O/U 46.5 · 5 books + KalshiEdge: HOU +6.5
80% CI 28-98%medium confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
adjusted epa v2- Elo + home-field gap+8.54 HOU
- Adjusted defensive edge+3.43 HOU
- Opponent-adjusted efficiency edge (EPA/play)+2.06 HOU
Model aloneHOU 76% · -9.5
Market (5 bk+K)HOU 57% · -3.0
Blend weight85% market
medium confidence · cal 50%
2026-09-20
Pick: NE -5.4blendO/U 43.0
Mkt: NE -5.0 · O/U 43.0 · 5 books + KalshiEdge: NE +2.5
80% CI 23-97%medium confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
adjusted epa v2- Elo + home-field gap+5.70 NE
- Opponent-adjusted efficiency edge (EPA/play)+1.71 NE
- Pace + pass-rate environment (total)-1.15 PIT
Model aloneNE 71% · -7.5
Market (5 bk+K)NE 67% · -5.0
Blend weight85% market
medium confidence · cal 50%
2026-09-20
Pick: GB -6.1blendO/U 42.6
Mkt: GB -5.5 · O/U 42.5 · 5 books + Kalshi · line → NYJEdge: GB +3.9
80% CI 2-72%medium confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
adjusted epa v2- Elo + home-field gap-7.87 GB
- Opponent-adjusted efficiency edge (EPA/play)-3.14 GB
- Pace + pass-rate environment (total)-1.67 GB
Model aloneNYJ 25% · 9.4
Market (5 bk+K)NYJ 34% · 5.5
Blend weight85% market
medium confidence · cal 50%
2026-09-20
Pick: TB -6.5blendO/U 40.0
Mkt: TB -6.5 · O/U 42.0 · 5 books + Kalshi · line → TB
80% CI 21-96%medium confidence · cal 50%
Why this prediction?
adjusted epa v2- Elo + home-field gap+5.97 TB
- Pace + pass-rate environment (total)-1.45 CLE
- Adjusted defensive edge-1.17 CLE
Model aloneTB 71% · -6.6
Market (5 bk+K)TB 74% · -6.5
Blend weight85% market
medium confidence · cal 50%
Today's storylines
- Lead storyFollow live: Allen notches fourth TD as Bills pile on vs. Lionswww.espn.com - NFL · just now
- Bills WR DJ Moore questionable to return after injuring shoulderprofootballtalk · 28m ago
- Lions on the board, trail 21-7profootballtalk · 41m ago
- Korn Ferry tries to keep key document in Brian Flores case under sealprofootballtalk · 49m ago
- Rout is on in Buffalo as Bills take 21-0 leadprofootballtalk · 55m ago
- Josh Allen carries the ball, the jokes and the Billswww.espn.com - NFL · 1h ago
- How fatherhood has changed Jared Goffwww.espn.com - NFL · 1h ago
- Josh Palmer scores his second TD of the season on his second catchprofootballtalk · 1h ago
Power rankings
via Elo- A+
- A+
- A+
- A+
- A
- A
- A
- A-
- A-
- A-
- A-
- A-
League-wide value bets
Comparing our model to market lines…
New here? Start here
- →This week's matchupsModel projections vs the market for every game
- →Browse all 32 teamsRosters, stats, schedules, and recent form
- →See the odds boardLive lines from major books, in plain English
- →Track your betsLog wagers and see if you beat the closing line
- →Compare two teamsHead-to-head matchup breakdowns
What the numbers mean
- Win probability
- Each team's modeled chance to win — e.g. 65% vs 35%.
- Elo rating
- A power-ranking score; higher is stronger, ~1500 is average.
- Spread
- The favorite's expected margin. “PHI -3.5” = win by 4+ to cover.
- Total (O/U)
- Combined points the market expects both teams to score.
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